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Volume 35, Number 1, pages 095-106 (2024)
https://doi.org/10.26830/symmetry_2024_1_095
THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE ON FOOD PRICE AND GOLD PRICE?
Tuğba Kantarcı1, Seda Yıldrım2*, Seyfettin Erdoğan3
1 Assist. Prof. Dr. Istanbul Gelisim University, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Department of Economics and Finance, Istanbul, Turkıye.
Email: tkantarci@gelisim.edu.tr
ORCID: 0000-0002-2257-430X
2* Prof. Dr., Tekirdağ Namık Kemal University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Business Administration, Tekirdağ, Turkiye.
Email: sedayil1@gmail.com
ORCID: 0000-0003-4367-6652
3 Prof. Dr. Istanbul Medeniyet University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkıye.
Email: erserdagm@hotmail.com
ORCID: 0000-0003-2790-4221
* corresponding author
Abstract: Economically, the relationships among gold prices, oil prices, and food prices have been a critical factor for every country. This study aims to investigate the asymmetric relationship between gold prices, food prices, and oil prices. As a contribution to the literature, the study also considers the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, which is a crucial event. The study examines whether the changes in global gold and food prices were caused by changes in oil prices, using the asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-j, for the period covering 2005:1-2023:10. During the COVID-19 period from 2020:1 to 2023:10, the relationship between variables is discussed separately. The analysis findings for the main period reveal a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. Furthermore, it has been established that a negative shock in global food prices negatively impacts oil prices, while a positive shock in global food prices positively impacts oil prices. In the mirror period, it is evident that the positive shock in oil prices had a negative effect on gold prices. In the post-COVID-19 period, it has been concluded that the negative shock in oil prices had a positive effect on gold prices. The study has also established a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. The results obtained according to the new economic conditions that emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to provide more accurate information to future studies and policy makers.
Keywords: oil price, global gold price, global food price, asymmetric causality, covid-19 pandemic.
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